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Brexit, the final countdown

Sunday, 19th June 2016

Brexit, the final countdown Image

This is the most important week in Gibraltar’s recent history. Gibraltar’s very existence in its current form is being challenged by the UK’s IN / OUT referendum in respect of its EU membership. Gibraltar’s own EU membership is indirect and relies upon that of the UK.

The stakes are high. Gibraltar’s economy relies largely on trade with the 520 million consumers within the EU. There are 12,000 frontier workers crossing the border to work in Gibraltar, a freedom created by the EU, the existence of which would be at the mercy of the Spanish government should there be a Brexit.

Chestertons Gibraltar has been a staunch supporter of the REMAIN campaign.

We are in good company, other REMAIN supporters include Warren Buffet, Bill Gates, Lady Karren Brady, Sir Richard Branson, Lord Alan Sugar and many business leaders including CEO’s of HSBC, Airbus, Ann Summers, Unilever, easyjet, Ryanair and many more.

Political parties committed to REMAIN in Gibraltar include the Gibraltar Socialist Labour Party, the Gibraltar Social Democrats and the Liberal Party of Gibraltar whilst in the UK REMAIN is supported by the Labour Party, Liberal Democrats, Scottish National Party, Ulster Unionist Party and Plaid Cymru. The Conservative Party is officially neutral.

Companies publicly supporting REMAIN include Airbus, Asda, BT, Diageo, Ford, Easyjet, IBM, M&S, Shell, Toyota, Rolls-Royce and Vauxhall.

Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund recently stated “We have looked at all the scenarios. We have done our homework and we haven’t found anything positive to say about a Brexit vote.”

UK Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond told reporters on his visit to Gibraltar last month: "Britain’s ability to protect Gibraltar’s interests will be seriously impaired if we are no longer members of the European Union, if we are no longer sitting around the table in Brussels when the decisions are made. I genuinely believe that the threat of leaving the European Union is as big a threat to Gibraltar's future security and Gibraltar's future sovereignty as the more traditional threats that we routinely talk about."

He’s right, Spain's foreign minister, Jose Manuel Garcia-Margallo is watching the Brexit debate closely: "It's true that this gives us an opportunity to have an even more important role than the one we already have with the United States, and don't forget about one other thing: we'll be talking about Gibraltar the very next day [if there is a Brexit]."

Which made Chief Minister Fabian Picardo comment: “This is exactly the type of attitude that we have come to expect from Snr Margallo and it no doubt pervades so many others of his mindset. It usefully sets out the danger that those who choose Brexit potentially create for Gibraltar if there is also a Partido Popular government in Spain in the future. This is as vivid an illustration as possible of that.”

There’s also a property angle to the vote which is clear in the UK, less clear in Gibraltar.

"An EU exit would cause a nervous ripple effect across the UK, with homeowners and potential buyers choosing to baton down the hatches and weather the potential uncertain economic storm, before committing to such a notable financial decision," online estate agent eMoov said. "Will unemployment rise? GDP fall? Could exports fall, causing businesses to fail?" The consequential reduction in demand for housing will "almost certainly cool the market and, as a result, house prices will reduce in turn to reflect this.”

Credit rating agency Standard & Poor said that a Brexit “could potentially reverse the significant boost to real estate asset values that the UK, and London in particular, has experienced in recent years. Should the country decide in favour of a Brexit, prolonged uncertainty during the subsequent exit negotiations may turn investor sentiment more negative."

In Gibraltar the impact of a Brexit on the local property market is harder to call. Will thousands of frontier workers seek properties in Gibraltar afraid of issues at the border?  Or will many ex-pat employees move away freeing up property?  Or both, but if so, which effect is the greater?

From a Gibraltar economy and constitution perspective, the message is clear, a REMAIN vote is essential, together with a high turnout to demonstrate unequivocally to politicians everywhere, where we see our future.

To avoid this uncertainty, and to show the UK, Spain and the rest of the EU what we think, we urge you to turn out and vote on the 23 June and to vote REMAIN on the 23 June. 

Contributed by Mike Nicholls