No article on the Gibraltar property market is complete without an analysis of where we are with the current Brexit negotiations.

The fact of the matter is that we really are nowhere which in itself has two effects. Uncertainty is probably the worst position for any business, as it is nigh on impossible to plan strategically when business owners really cannot forecast the political and economic climate in the next year or two. However, the flip side is that as the uncertainty drags on, it is becoming the new norm and more and more Gibraltar businesses can see a successful future for themselves within Gibraltar whether we are in or out of the single market, whether there is a two year or five year transitional phase, or even whether Brexit actually happens.

I have stated it before in previous articles, but just to reconfirm, based on our actual sales, actual pipeline and current website statistics at Chestertons, there really has not been any noticeable impact of Brexit on Chestertons’ share of the Gibraltar property market. Indeed, such is the demand, we hardly have any rental properties available, whilst off-plan sales and resales remain robust.

Fuelling the confidence, or perhaps just the acceptance of the many different futures that Gibraltar may have, is the continued strong support from the UK when Gibraltar is brought into the equation. At the recent Conservative party conference, foreign secretary Boris Johnston stated that Britain’s commitment to upholding Gibraltar’s British sovereignty and its right to self-determination is as “immoveable as the Pillars of Hercules themselves”. He went on to say that “the double lock is there for the people of Gibraltar. We will defend this Rock and we will defend the principle of democracy, because that fundamentally is what it is all about. This isn’t about the Treaty of Utrecht, this is about the right of people to determine their own future.”

According to Mercopress, Boris Johnson said the UK would defend not just Gibraltar’s right to self determination, but its economy too. The Foreign Secretary also said he was certain the UK would be able to ensure that Brexit would work for the UK, Gibraltar and Spain.

Spain has also seemed to have softened its stance a little. Alfonso Dastis, Spain’s foreign minister, told Spanish conservative daily ABC that Spain will not “endanger” the UK’s Brexit deal by forcing a change of Gibraltar’s status. “I won’t make a deal between the EU and the UK conditional on recovering sovereignty over Gibraltar” said Dastis who according to the Daily Express even stated "We hope we can adjust these things and cooperate with the UK and with Gibraltar to bring a better standard of life to La Linea and the Campo." Cooperate? That’s new! Perhaps Spain is realising that bullying does not work when it comes to Gibraltar. Whatever is happening politically, the mood on the street is clearly more confident in respect of the Brexit impact than it was twelve months ago.

There is even an argument to say that Brexit has fuelled the fire within Gibraltar as entrepreneurs, regulators and government work together to create the right environment for the huge growth in the fintech industry. The theory being that if some industries are under threat (which may be the case with Brexit, although decreasingly likely), let’s move on with the next one. Blockchain, ICO’s (initial coin offerings), digital ledger technology and cryptocurrency are the new terms now entering the Gibraltar business language. Gibraltar could be one of the first countries in the world to provide a regulatory environment (due January 2018) for this new technology. New skills are being learned in or attracted to Gibraltar. Investment is coming in.

Is this because of Brexit, or accelerated by Brexit? We may never know for sure. But for now, the confidence is there. And that confidence is exceeding the Brexit uncertainty. And that can only be good for the Gibraltar property market.