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Gibraltar property market – Supply v Demand

Sunday, 20th July 2014

Gibraltar property market – Supply v Demand Image

At the time of writing it is Portugal v Germany in the World Cup. Meanwhile it is Supply v Demand in theGibraltar property market. Germany are battering Portugal. Demand is battering Supply. (Football can be brought into any article with imagination!)

But what can correct the Supply v Demand imbalance?

“For most people, their home is the biggest investment of their lifetime. And, of course, they want that asset to increase in value over time. But a home is also a place to live and build our lives – and we want all families to be able to afford security, comfort and peace of mind. That means homes have to be affordable – whether you’re renting or buying.

The only way that can be achieved over the long term is by building more, so supply better matches demand. But we are a small and crowded island, keen to protect our green spaces and ready to object to new development.

So the British people want our homes to go up in value, but also remain affordable; and we want more homes built, just not next to us.

You can see why no one has managed yet to solve the problems of Britain’s housing market.”

So said, Chancellor George Osborne in his annual Mansion House speech just last month. He could have been talking about Gibraltar (except the reference to an “island” of course) as the issues are much the same.

Osborne announced a brake on demand which was to give the Bank of England new powers over mortgages including the size of mortgage loans as a share of family incomes or the value of the property such that “if the Bank of England thinks some borrowers are being offered excessive amounts of debt, they can limit the proportion of high loan to income mortgages each bank can lend, or even ban all new lending above a specific loan to income ratio.” That solution sounds a little draconian in our relatively small mortgage market which I do not think is fuelled by easy mortgages (tried getting one recently?).

The real issue is supply. “We need to see a lot more homes being built in Britain. The growing demand for housing has to be met by growing supply. The alternative, as in any market, is that prices will rise so that homes become unaffordable to many of our citizens and take up ever more of their incomes.”

That is the same challenge as Gibraltar faces. The government is addressing the supply issue in the local property market with construction underway of around 900 new apartments at Mons Calpe Mews and Beach View Terraces. This should help alleviate some of the pent up demand from the local housing list. However, what about the supply of open market property?

“We have beautiful landscapes, and they too are part of the inheritance of the next generation. To preserve them, we must make other compromises. If we want to limit development on important green spaces, we have to remove all the obstacles that remain to development on brown field sites.”

And that perhaps is the solution. How about a fast tracked planning process for residential property of a certain nature on certain designated sites in certain areas? Or tax advantages on a zonal basis that could help target desired development? The Eastside Reclamation has recently become an area open for development and Expressions of Interest are invited by the Government for property development schemes. “Eastside Garden City” might just be the answer. Hope so.

Gibraltar’s property market imbalance is not unique. We share it with the UK. Some of the causes and solutions may differ, however the fundamental solution is the same.

“I will not stand by and allow this generation, many of whom have been fortunate enough to own their own home, to say to the next generation: we’re pulling up the property ladder behind us. So we will build the houses Britain needs so that more families can have the economic security that comes with home ownership.

And in case you missed it, Germany have beaten Portugal 4-0. And Supply will soon catch up with Demand. That’s what George and I think anyway.

Contributed by Mike Nicholls